After five years, the “gateway” of the European PV market is once again open to Chinese companies.
Recently, the European Commission announced that the EU anti-dumping and countervailing measures against PV products in China will be terminated after midnight on September 3. This means that the EU's five-year "double-reverse" and minimum price (MIP) measures for China's PV have expired, and the two sides will resume normal PV trade on September 4.
A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded by saying that China welcomes the EU's termination of dual-counter measures against China's photovoltaics, and China-EU PV trade has returned to normal market conditions.
Europe used to be the world's largest market for photovoltaic applications. The new installed capacity in the world accounted for 30% of the global market. It is also the most important market for China's photovoltaic industry. It once occupied 90% of China's PV product exports and prices.
In 2013, the EU imposed anti-dumping and countervailing measures on photovoltaic modules, wafers and batteries for the first time in China, and extended the measures in March 2017 for 18 months until September this year.
“This news has brought a certain boost to the domestic PV industry chain that is in the “severe winter” policy.” China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a document saying that with the withdrawal of the “double-reverse” measures and the willingness of EU countries to develop renewable energy Existing institutions have predicted that the installed capacity of new PV in Europe will increase from about 9GW last year to about 11GW, an increase of more than 20%.
A number of PV companies have said to the interface news that the EU has canceled the "double-reverse" and MIP measures against China, which is a good news for the industry and enterprises.
“It is conducive to the large-scale application of cheap Internet access in Europe.” Jing Jing, vice president of Jingke Energy, the world's largest PV module manufacturer, said that Jingke Energy's original overseas production capacity cannot meet the strong demand in the European and US markets, if domestic production capacity can be supplied. Europe will release more capacity to meet the US market.
GCL integration also affirmed the positive impact of this measure. GCL's revenue in the European market accounts for about 30% of its overseas revenue, and the current target is still maintained at 30%-40%, because "most parts of Europe have reached, or are reaching parity online standards, The market size of the region will certainly be larger than before, so the denominator is also increasing."
Dongfang Risheng (300118.SZ) told the interface journalist that it is expected that the price of subsequent battery chips and components will continue to fall slowly this year, and that the European market style tends to be conservative and stable. The termination of MIP will not cause changes in demand this year. However, since 2019, European market demand will be lower due to component procurement costs, higher than originally expected.
Since 2012, major European member states have begun to cut PV subsidies drastically. Coupled with trade barriers, the new installed capacity in the region has dropped rapidly, from 24GW in 2012 to 7GW in 2014. China’s exports of photovoltaic products to Europe have also fallen.
In 2017, supported by the strong growth of the Turkish market, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe has rebounded. According to IHSMarkit data, the installed capacity of grid-connected PV in Europe last year was 8.61GW, up 28% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in five years, accounting for less than 10% of the global installed capacity.
Heraeus, the global provider of photovoltaic metallization slurry, expects new installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe this year to be 9-12GW. Driven by booming markets such as Spain, France and Germany, it is expected to grow to 17GW in 2019.
Heraeus pointed out that after the EU's "double opposition" and MIP termination, China's PV product suppliers can directly sell batteries and modules to the EU market, rather than through the factories of Southeast Asian countries, the market share in Europe will continue to increase, while digesting inventory ,improve the utilization.
As of now, the PV products imported from Europe are mainly from Southeast Asia, South Korea, Turkey, India and Taiwan. "Taiwan's PV manufacturers will face more intense price competition with Chinese PV manufacturers," Heraeus said.
After the "531" New Deal was issued in the first half of the year, the control of the domestic PV industry was unprecedented, and the demand for installed capacity of domestic PV power plants shrank significantly. Companies with a certain scale and competitiveness have begun to shift their strategic focus to overseas markets and find new growth points.
This has been reflected in the results of the mid-year report that PV companies have just disclosed. Longjing shares (601012.SH), a leading company in monocrystalline silicon wafers, said that in the first half of the year, the company's overseas monocrystalline module sales reached 687MW, 18 times that of the same period last year. Component Partners Xiexin Integration (002505.SZ) said that overseas revenues in the first half of the year tripled year-on-year, mainly because the company shifted its focus to overseas markets and the overseas market orders were full.
After the EU terminates MIP, more PV products will flood in, and PV products and power generation costs in the European market will fall. Jinneng Technology said, "In the pursuit of lower electricity costs, efficient, cost-effective products will become mainstream."
Su Xia, executive deputy general manager of Su Mei Da Hui Lun, said that in the long run, in addition to the European market, the development of emerging country markets is also worthy of attention.
China Photovoltaic Industry Association also pointed out that after the EU terminated the double-reverse, Chinese PV companies' overseas sales to the European market were more convenient than before, but considering market space factors, they should not be blindly optimistic. In the long run, the global PV market is moving toward a “decentralization” trend, and emerging market markets should be more concerned.