At the United Nations Global Compact Leaders Summit in New York in September, representatives of the photovoltaic industry will release the PV industry outlook 2025, from the aspects of architecture, transportation, smart city, smart home, finance, etc., to propose ten major trends that cannot be ignored.
Trend 1: The world will no longer build new coal power projects
By 2025, global PV prices will drop to an average of 1 cent/kWh or even lower, and 100% of countries will reach parity online. By 2025, the cost of electricity for new PV projects will be 30% lower than that of new coal-fired projects. This means that most countries, including China, will not be economically viable with new coal-fired power projects after 2025, so the world will stop building new coal-fired power projects, and the thermal power plants will gradually leave the energy stage. center.
Trend 2: Photovoltaic construction: More countries will enact legislation requiring new rooftops to be retrofitted with photovoltaics
By 2025, more and more countries and regions will modify or add the building standards for local application of solar energy systems in the form of local regulations, requiring that photovoltaic systems be installed in new residential buildings above a certain height within a certain height; All suitable industrial and commercial roofs in the park must be installed with photovoltaics and will also be incorporated into local park management regulations.
Trend 3: Photovoltaic transportation: Photovoltaic electric vehicle charging piles (station) will be fully constructed in areas with tight power supply.
The construction of electric vehicle photovoltaic charging piles (station) in the world will be the combination of photovoltaic power generation and new energy electric vehicles. The parking lots allowed by lighting conditions, especially those with tight power supply, will be given priority. Taking China as an example, by 2025, 100% of new residential building parking spaces will be built to build photovoltaic charging facilities or to reserve construction and installation conditions. Large-scale public buildings will be equipped with photovoltaic parking lots and social public parking lots to build photovoltaic charging facilities or reserve. The proportion of parking spaces under construction and installation conditions shall not be less than 10%, and at least one public photovoltaic charging station shall be built for every 2,000 electric vehicles.
Trend 4: Portfolio: PV is a new investment choice for oil and gas giants
As the cost of photovoltaic technology continues to decline, growth opportunities in this area are beginning to attract more attention from the oil and gas industry. In addition, “re-electrification” is increasingly seen as the core of future energy transformation. The transformation to power has also become the consensus of many oil and gas companies and utility companies, and photovoltaic power generation is undoubtedly the most attractive investment target. By 2025, the energy company's "cross-border competition era" will come fully.
Trend 5: Combining with digitalization: Realizing the multi-directional positive interaction of “source-network-load-storage” of photovoltaic energy Internet
By 2025, the photovoltaic industry should be based on "Internet + Photovoltaic", power flow, information flow, business flow, and capital flow are combined to greatly enhance the depth and breadth of distributed photovoltaics in terms of network, intelligence and digitalization. . At the same time, relying on blockchain technology, it will create a new industry form of “photovoltaic power generation technology + Internet of Things + blockchain + big data” with intelligence, power station management, supply chain management and financial services, and distributed social network platform. Photovoltaic Bitcoin or will become a special trading virtual currency in the field.
Trend 6: RE100: More companies join the RE100 organization and promise to use 100% green power
By 2025, more than 80% of the world's top 500 companies will join the RE100 organization, committing 100% to renewable energy, and the number of RE100 members will exceed 1,000. It is estimated that the investment will increase by 800 billion US dollars.
Trend 7: Green Finance: More Financial Products Are Born
By 2025, integrate the photovoltaic industry chain and financial industry chain, and introduce more innovative financial products to the market, such as “green leasing”, “green insurance”, “green industry fund”, “investment and rent combination” and “green bond”. “Green Payment”, “Green Bitcoin”, “Green Power Futures”, “Carbon Finance”, “Environmental Rights Trading”, “Green Credit”, etc. Green finance will become a kind of business that actively embraces and actively carries out such activities as banks, brokerages, insurance companies and public funds.
Trend 8: Trading: Selling electricity across the wall, purchasing electricity across provinces, and selling electricity across borders will become a trend
By 2025, distributed power marketization transactions will be gradually liberalized and expanded. With the improvement of UHV and grid access capabilities, wall sales, cross-province PV, and cross-border sales of photovoltaics between countries Will become a fashion.
Trend 9: "Photovoltaic + energy storage" hydrogen production is economically viable
By 2025, the "photovoltaic + energy storage" hydrogen production system technology will greatly improve the economic feasibility of large-scale application, that is, the combination of photovoltaic cells, rechargeable batteries, and electrolyzed hydrogen devices, and control of battery charge and discharge through digital technology. Hydrogen production, by then hydrogen production costs will be reduced to 0.15-0.25 US dollars / cubic meters. Countries will build photovoltaic energy storage hydrogen projects.
Trend 10: Photovoltaic Smart Home
By 2025, urbanization will reduce the urban population, the economics of photovoltaic electricity prices and the narrowing of differences in higher education areas, attracting high-energy enterprises to move factories to areas with abundant photovoltaic power. This will accelerate the development of household systems. Photovoltaic combined with smart home to achieve zero energy consumption in the home.