The main policies of the photovoltaic industry in 2019
First, the impact of the "531" New Deal
After experiencing rapid development in recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has reached the peak of capacity and installed capacity. In 2017, the newly added PV installed capacity reached an unprecedented 53GW. The direct consequence of this situation is the continuous expansion of the subsidy gap. In order to avoid the disorderly development of the industry, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (referred to as the "531" New Deal). As of now, the New Deal has been implemented for more than a year. The PV industry has a significant impact.
First of all, according to the provisions of the "531" New Deal, the scale of the construction of ordinary photovoltaic power plants in 2018 will not be arranged, and only the scale of distributed photovoltaic construction of about 10 million kilowatts will be arranged. Therefore, from the overall data, the newly added capacity of photovoltaics has been significantly reduced. In July 2018, 7GW was installed in the same month, down 35.5% from the previous month and down 42.5% from the same period of last year. In August 2018, the newly installed capacity was only about 1.3GW, down 81.5% from the previous month. In 2018, China's new PV installed capacity exceeded 44GW, down 18% year-on-year.
Secondly, since the large-scale grid-connected scale will directly affect the demand for PV modules, the supply chain prices have fallen sharply since the second half of 2018, from silicon materials, silicon wafers to battery chips, components, and supply chain. Big shock. According to PV InfoLink website statistics, the price of photovoltaic products in the month after the release of the “531” New Deal, the price of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and components fell by more than 10%.
Finally, due to the reduction in domestic market demand and lower product prices, photovoltaic manufacturing companies have also been greatly affected. In the "531" New Deal round of reshuffle, the proportion of large enterprises with technology and scale advantages has further expanded, while enterprises with insignificant advantages, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are facing tremendous pressure to survive.
Second, the new policy of China's photovoltaic industry since 2019
(1) Policy summary
Since the beginning of this year, China has issued a number of documents that have a greater impact on the photovoltaic industry. On January 7, the National Development and Reform Commission,
The National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Actively Promoting the Work of Unfunded Affordable Internet Access for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation" (Development and Reform Energy [2019] No. 19), and proposed the construction of a low-cost Internet project and a low-cost Internet pilot project. On April 30, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Improving the Issues Related to the On-grid Price Mechanism of Photovoltaic Power Generation" (Development and Reform Price [2019] No. 761), and determined the PV price standard for 2019. On May 7th, the National Energy Administration issued the “Special Work Plan for Clean Energy Dissipation Key Regulations” (Guo Neng Ji Tong Tong Supervision [2019] No. 38), proposing to further promote the optimization of clean energy grid-connected services to ensure fairness, non-discrimination and efficiency. Access to the grid. On May 17, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Establishing and Improving the Safeguard Mechanism for Renewable Energy Power Consumption" (Development and Reform Energy [2019] No. 807), and delineated 13 policy measures to promote Establish a renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism. On May 22, the National Energy Administration and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Promulgating the First Batch of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Level Price Internet Projects in 2019" (Development and Reform Office Energy [2019] No. 594), showing 16 provincial levels in the country. The energy authority submitted a list of wind and light parity Internet projects, of which the installed capacity of PV affordable Internet projects was 14.78GW. On May 31, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on the Relevant Matters Concerning the Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2019 (Guo Neng Fa Xinneng [2019] No. 49), the annex to which is the work plan for the construction of photovoltaic power generation projects in 2019. ", reflects the ideas and actions of the state to reform the photovoltaic power generation management mechanism.
(2) Basic characteristics of the new policy
(1) Market orientation. The important feature of this year's new PV policy is to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources in the market. Through market-based means, the project scale and layout will be realized, and the subsidy level of each project will be determined to improve the efficiency of subsidy funds. The new policy considers the basis and conditions for the large-scale development of the photovoltaic power generation market. It requires that in addition to photovoltaic poverty alleviation and household photovoltaics, all other photovoltaic power generation projects that require state subsidies must, in principle, be declared and competitively ordered by project owners. Determine national subsidy items and electricity prices.
(2) Striving for stability. In 2019, the domestic photovoltaic power generation market entered a new stage of coexistence of various project models such as unsubsidized parity and access to the national subsidy competition allocation and stock project construction. The newly announced policy supports the development of the upstream manufacturing industry with a reasonable new scale through bidding, promotes the survival of the fittest in the industry, and encourages the reduction of cost and electricity subsidies. When researcher of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, Yan Li predicted that the grid-connected scale of PV-based pilot projects for household use in 2019, and the previous annual arrangement, is expected to be more than 10 million kilowatts, and the corresponding scale may be around 30 million kilowatts, plus 5 The first batch of PV unsubsidized parity projects in 2019 announced in the month of more than 4 million kilowatts, can achieve the goal of steady progress in the whole year.
Third, the impact of China's photovoltaic industry policy since 2019
(1) The national subsidy project for ordinary photovoltaic power generation is fully implemented in the market competition. The National Energy Administration's "2019 Photovoltaic Power Generation Project Construction Work Plan" (hereinafter referred to as "the Work Plan") is clearly defined, except for photovoltaic poverty alleviation and household photovoltaics. In principle, photovoltaic power generation projects that require state subsidies must adopt competitive allocation methods such as bidding, and determine the state subsidy projects and subsidy standards through project owner declaration and competition ranking. National subsidy funds are preferentially used to subsidize projects and regions where demand is falling rapidly and can achieve parity as soon as possible, giving full play to the role of state subsidies to support advanced enterprises and leading PV parity. On the whole, in the future, there will be a competitive rule of “intra-provincial bidding + national sorting”. For bidding projects, the state does not directly introduce a unified allocation method, and the provincial energy authorities shall formulate unified competition in the region in accordance with national policy requirements. The work plan for sexually allocated resources, based on the national photovoltaic power generation price policy, takes the expected on-grid tariff as the main competitive condition. After the project enters the provincial annual proposed new project list, it will be summarized by the provincial energy authority and submitted to the National Energy Administration. Eventually, the National Energy Administration will select the items included in the subsidy range according to the revised on-line tariff price of the subsidized project. It should be noted that the owner may not compile the project owner's self-constructed photovoltaic power generation project in the self-owned property building or site. The industrial and commercial rooftop photovoltaic and the project that the enterprise has carried out the preliminary work may not be competitively arranged by the project owner after confirmation by the local government. After the above-mentioned project clarifies the on-grid tariff price, the above-mentioned project can apply for the state subsidy bid through the provincial energy authority.
(2) The online guidance price replaces the benchmark electricity price, and the construction of the affordable online project has been promoted. According to the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Improving the On-grid Electricity Price Mechanism of Photovoltaic Power Generation, the on-grid tariff of the ground photovoltaic power station has been replaced for many years, replaced by The guiding price under the market-based bidding system. Taking into account various factors, the above-mentioned documents will be included in the I-III resource area of the national financial subsidies. The new centralized photovoltaic power plant guidance price is determined to be 0.40 yuan per kWh (including tax, the same below), 0.45 yuan, 0.55 yuan . The guidance price of the three types of resource zones introduced this year is the upper limit of the market-based bidding. The bidding items are sorted according to the revised electricity price from low to high, until they are cleared. The price determined by the market competition mode is settled by the local provincial power grid in the part of the local coal-fired unit's benchmark on-grid price (including desulfurization, denitrification, and dust removal price); the higher part is subsidized by the National Renewable Energy Development Fund.
(III) Further promote project management and comprehensively build a classification model According to the “Work Plan” and the recently promulgated policies, the classification management of photovoltaic power generation is embodied in two levels. The first level is to divide photovoltaic power generation projects into countries that do not need state subsidies and need countries. There are two types of subsidies, and the non-subsidized parity project applies the parity policy promulgated in January 2019. The subsidized projects regulated by the Work Plan are divided into five categories at the second level: (1) Photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects, including photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects that have been included in the National Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Catalogue and nationally released plans; (2) Household PV : The owner-built natural household distributed photovoltaic project; (3) ordinary photovoltaic power station: photovoltaic power station with installed capacity of 6 MW and above; (4) industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation project: in-situ development, near use and single point All kinds of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects other than household photovoltaics with installed capacity less than 6 MW; (5) Special projects or demonstration projects implemented by the state, including demonstration provinces, demonstration zones and demonstration cities with clear national construction scale Photovoltaic power generation projects, as well as supporting photovoltaic power generation projects across provinces and trans-regional transmission channels. The above five types of PV projects enjoy different policies according to the characteristics and needs of the development stage. The photovoltaic poverty alleviation project and the household photovoltaic project adopt the method of “no bidding, limited scale”. Photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects are implemented in accordance with relevant national policies, both old and new. The annual installed capacity of household photovoltaics based on the subsidy quota of the cuts and
The fixed subsidy standard is managed separately. In 2019, the household PV fund is cut into 750 million yuan, supporting the 3.5 million kilowatt household photovoltaic project and giving a one-month grace period, that is, after the cumulative new grid-connected capacity of 3.5 million kilowatts is reached. Household photovoltaics connected to the grid before the end of the next month can enjoy the household subsidy policy for household use in 2019, and projects that have been connected to the grid before the release of the document but not included in the scope of state subsidies can also enjoy the policy and include 3.5 million kilowatts. Within the scope of the scale, it reflects the support for household photovoltaics. Ordinary photovoltaic power plants, industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects are generally adopted the "bidding, unlimited size, limited subsidies" approach, participate in local competition allocation and participate in the national unified sequencing. According to the "Work Plan", the 2019 subsidy bidding project will organize the project construction according to the total subsidy of 225 million yuan (excluding photovoltaic poverty alleviation). Therefore, if the calculation is based on the standard of 0.05-0.08 yuan for electricity subsidies, it is estimated that the total bid price of ordinary photovoltaic power plants and industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in 2019 is about 32GW-51GW.
(IV) Defining the construction period and implementing the new and old system of stock projects First, the Notice on Improving the Relevant Issues Concerning the On-grid Price Mechanism of Photovoltaic Power Generation stipulates that the scale of financial subsidies has been approved and the project owners have been identified, but the concentration of on-grid tariffs has not yet been determined. Photovoltaic power station (except for the invalidation of project indicators), connected to the grid before June 30, 2019 (inclusive), the on-grid price shall be implemented in accordance with the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018"; after July 1 (inclusive) On-grid, the on-grid tariff is executed at the price indicated in the notice.
Secondly, according to the provisions of the "Working Plan", the photovoltaic projects (including the second-phase photovoltaic power generation leading base project) that have been started but not connected to the grid in the past, must be fully connected to the grid before the end of 2019, otherwise they will not be included. country. Projects that have been included in the previous national construction scale and have not started construction have already confirmed the project owner's implementation of the relevant national price policy; if the project owner has not yet been determined, the project owner and the on-grid tariff will be determined by the local individual organization competition configuration. At the end of 2020, full-capacity grid-connected (including the second-phase photovoltaic power generation base project) will be required, otherwise it will no longer be included in the scope of state subsidies. If the construction conditions for the red warning are not met and the state has other regulations, the construction period may be appropriately relaxed.
Finally, the "Working Plan" requires the implementation of the enterprise investment project commitment system, and the photovoltaic power generation projects listed in the scope of state subsidies should be completed and connected to the grid before the end of the quarter when the declared production time is expected. Overdue one quarter grid-connected electricity price subsidy reduced by 0.01 yuan / kWh. In the two quarters after the quarter of the reporting period, the grid has not been completed, and the subsidy for project subsidies has been cancelled. It is also an important factor in the environmental monitoring and evaluation of the photovoltaic power generation market and the next annual declaration.
Under the aforesaid requirements, the company will spare no effort to develop and construct, and strive to achieve full capacity grid connection within the time limit required by the "Work Plan" in order to enjoy the state subsidy policy. It is expected that another wave of rushing installations of photovoltaic projects is coming.
(V) Full implementation of the renewable energy power ratio target and power delivery conditions First, the renewable energy power ratio target has been used as an important indicator. The Notice on Establishing a Sound and Reducing Mechanism for Renewable Energy Power Consumption proposes to establish and improve a renewable energy power consumption guarantee mechanism. The core of this is to determine the proportion of renewable energy power in power consumption in each province-level region. “Renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight”. The purpose of this policy is to promote the priority of the provincial-level regions to eliminate renewable energy, speed up the problem of abandoning water, abandoning wind and abandoning light, and at the same time prompting various market entities to bear the responsibility of consumption fairly, and to form a long-term effect led by renewable energy power consumption. Development mechanism. Dissipation of the weight of responsibility, total weight of responsibility and non-hydropower consumption responsibility. For the above two types of weights, the minimum weight of responsibility for consumption and the weight of incentive for consumption are set according to the year. The measurement of the weight of responsibility for consumption is determined, taking into account factors such as renewable energy resources, total social electricity consumption, national energy planning and implementation, construction of major national renewable energy bases, and resource allocation capacity of trans-provincial transmission channels. .
Secondly, according to the aforementioned notice, it clearly stipulates the responsibilities of government departments, power grid enterprises, and various market entities. The provincial energy authorities shall take the lead in implementing the responsibility, organize the formulation of the implementation plan for renewable energy power consumption in the provincial level, and submit the plan to the provincial people's government for approval. Sales companies and power users work together to take responsibility for consumption. The power grid enterprise is responsible for organizing and implementing the implementation of the burden of responsibility for the consumption in the business area. Each market entity completes the consumption by actually eliminating the renewable energy, purchasing the excess consumption of other market entities, and voluntarily subscribing to the green power certificate.
Finally, the aforementioned notice proposes to monitor, evaluate and evaluate the completion of the burden of responsibility for consumption at two levels. First, the provincial energy authority is responsible for assessing the market entities responsible for the burden of consumption, and second, the state is conducting the provincial administrative region. Monitoring and evaluation. The provincial-level energy administrative department supervises the rectification of market entities that have not fulfilled their responsibility for consumption, and the market entities that evade social responsibility and do not rectify according to the requirements within the prescribed time limit are included in the bad credit record according to the regulations, and are included in the joint disciplinary action of untrustworthiness. The state publishes the monitoring and evaluation report on an annual basis as the basis for the “double control” assessment of its energy consumption.
Fourth, summary
Photovoltaic projects have always been characterized by unstable policy environment, involving many subjects, and complex trading models. Nowadays, after experiencing the shock period of “531 New Deal”, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a transitional period. As far as a series of policy documents in 2019 is concerned, the main idea is to gradually reduce and cancel subsidies, and the overall industrial policy is tightened. Form a new trend of “intra-provincial bidding + country ranking”