In 2015, over 190 countries in Paris unanimously agreed in Paris to adopt the "Paris Agreement," promulgating an agreement to transform the fossil fuel-driven economy and make arrangements for responding to global climate change after 2020. That same year, Britain closed the last deep coal mine and announced the closure of all coal-fired power stations by 2025, marking "an era to come to an end." Today, in this globalized ecosystem, coal and petroleum are no longer scarce resources. Renewable energies such as solar and wind power have risen dramatically. Energy storage technologies and energy efficiency have been significantly improved. Energy has entered a diversified era.
In this era of traditional energy and new energy coexistence, how to achieve both a reasonable, orderly and sustainable development? Recently, at the China New Energy Salon, Chen Weidong, secretary general of the Economic and Energy Policy Committee of the New Energy Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, said in his speech on "Energy Transformation - Traditional Energy and New Energy" that the world's energy is moving from high-carbon to low-carbon Change from low to high density development. In order to achieve sustained growth of our economy, we must take the "China model" mode of energy transformation. Revolutionize energy production and energy consumption, and adjust the coal-based energy consumption structure. We attach great importance to the development of non-carbon or low-carbon energy such as natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable energy.
The world's energy transformation is irreversible
Technological progress is the most fundamental driving force for energy transformation. Economic globalization, environmental pressure and low-carbon moralization are also accelerating the transformation. The proportion of low-cost oil resources has increased; the natural gas has entered a phase of rapid development; the unconventional oil and gas revolution has reshaped the pattern of supply and demand; and the renewable energy, energy storage technologies and energy efficiency have been greatly enhanced. With the diversification of energy structure and the rapid progress of social civilization, people are gradually realizing the importance of "maintaining the Earth's existence."
It can be said that as of now we have experienced three energy transitions. From 1881 coal replaced wood as the dominant energy source, gradually replaced most of the coal and gas, and now diversified energy development. After two centuries of great changes in the use of energy, renewable energy, oil and coal have become the three main energy sources.
There are two clear trajectories of energy transformation: from high carbon to low carbon and non-carbon, from low-density energy to high-density energy.
From high carbon to low carbon. The general molecular structure, wood is a hydrogen atom 10 carbon atoms, oil is 2 hydrogen atoms 2 carbon atoms, carbon does not participate in energy transformation. Global energy from wood to oil, fossil fuels to non-fossil fuels, carbon less and less, energy is moving from high carbon to low carbon transition path.
From low-density energy to high-density energy transformation. From renewable energy, how to achieve high density? Energy storage technology. Energy storage technologies are undergoing a great deal of practice. In the future, with the improvement of energy storage technologies, too much renewable energy can be retained when electricity demand is low and used for periods with high electricity demand. It is estimated that the utilization of renewable energy can be increased from 30% to 60%, and it is estimated that it will reduce the electricity production cost in half. At the same time, the regenerative power generated from energy storage devices is very stable and continuous, so no more coal is needed to maintain grid stability. In the low-density to high-density energy conversion process, while achieving high-carbon to low-carbon changes.
restructuring of energy industry
When the Chinese first faced the industrial revolution more than 100 years ago, Li Hung-chang once said that China is facing "a major change that has not taken place in three thousand years." At that time, China's manufacturing structure ushered in a revolution in the replacement of handicraft by machinery. Nowadays, there is also a "great change" in the energy field around the world and a full adjustment of the energy industry structure.
First, the impact of NOC and IOC on the industry has undergone a revolutionary transformation. Oil prices have been linked to the cycles of finance and social development. Technological advances, business model innovation and financial innovation have jointly driven energy Industrial Revolutionary Progress.
Second, the golden age of natural gas and renewable energy (photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, fuel cells, etc.) and the "mosaic" era of transport energy.
Third, the world's energy transformation is showing a new pattern of "three consumption peaks and three driving modes." The three consumer spikes, the peak in China's coal consumption, the peak in US oil consumption and the peak in Europe's natural gas consumption. The three driving modes are supply-side revolution driven by entrepreneurial spirit in a full-fledged market economy in the United States, the renewable energy revolution promoted by the low-carbon environmental protection concept of German society and government, and the consumption of electricity due to active social energy saving after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan Continued to decline.
China's energy development model
Compared to the United Kingdom and Japan, China has completed the modern process of industrialization and urbanization in a relatively short period of time. At the same time, faster development has also posed serious threats and challenges to the environment. Nowadays, the large-scale haze phenomenon has profoundly realized to our country that only by "boosting gas and reducing coal consumption" and developing renewable energy alternative energy transformation strategies can we reduce the harm to the environment. So far, our country has been more steadfast in its strategy of sustainable development and economic development has kept pace with the improvement of the environment.
China's oil and natural gas resources are poorer, but geo-energy is in a better position. The north can be connected to Central Asia and Russia through large-scale long-distance oil and gas pipelines, and 15 LNG receiving terminals have been built along the southeast coast. At present, the pipeline natural gas and LNG receiving capacity have exceeded 100 billion cubic meters. In 2017, the imported natural gas will be about 70 billion cubic meters. This shows that the Chinese government is determined to promote clean energy.
It is worth mentioning that China's photovoltaic industry has been on the rise. As of the end of September 2017, China's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity reached 120 million kilowatts, only the first three quarters of this year, the new installed capacity reached 43GW. Over the past decade, the cost of photovoltaic modules dropped by about 90%, China produced about 50% of the world's crystalline silicon and about 80% of the PV modules. Photovoltaic became another new business card after China's high-speed rail.
China's Energy Revolution Created "China Model." China's energy structure, accounting for up to 64% of coal, coal is still the main energy, high carbonization so that the transformation of traditional energy is imminent. In recent years, our country has drastically developed renewable energy resources, reduced coal consumption driven by the global energy transformation, accelerated the adjustment of energy structure and fully developed the viable energy sources.
As an important force in the new global geo-political situation, China is also a major resource utilization and production country with about one-fifth of the world's population. Entering the new era of China, the world is gradually approaching the center of the world stage. The pace of energy transformation determines the process of globalization and energy transformation. The International Energy Agency predicts that by 2040, about 60% of new global installed capacity will come from renewable sources. Global energy is accelerating to the low-carbon, carbon-free direction, new energy alternative to most of the traditional energy is the trend. Our country should build its own China model based on the existing resources and social development. Realize the organic combination of new energy and traditional energy and take the road of sustainable development.